I'm pretty sure that number was thrown out by Konami because LTD sales for a game like MGS4 should be fairly predictable based upon the initial (first day) sales, much like a blockbuster movies' opening day/weekend performance. It's not like an indie movie that develops a buzz that increases viewers and showings over time as more interest builds.
Most will agree that a game like MGS4 will be heavily top loaded sales-wise, with a projected attach rate for subsequent consoles sold based upon previous chapters of the game.
So if Konami's financial staff has a fairly accurate expectation for future attach rates for the game, they will be able to revise those expectations based upon initial sales.
If it sells significantly less than expected initially, two things happen: either the game experiences a higher than expected attach rate for future sales to compensate for the weaker than expected debut (unlikely), or the game sells less than expected overall, and Konami's stock takes a hit.
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