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DragonLord said:

Absolutely not. It will "INFLUENCE" it, but not determine it.

Too many other important titles are still coming out to go that far, LET ALONE IT STILL COST $400!!!!...FFXIII, FFvsXIII, KZII, White Knight Chronicles, Gran Turismo 5, God of War 3, Little Big Planet, SOCOM Confrontation, Tekken 6 just to name a FEW.

It DEFINITELY won't determine it; however, it is an important appetizer.

MGS4 will not determine the success of the PS3 but it will contribute to it.  MGS4 along with the other games DragonLord listed above will make sure the PS3 is very successful in the long run