Switch is like a rebaked WiiU, complete with re-releases of a ton of the same games. As mobile is meaningless to me, I would hesitate to spend even $149 for it. I have a huge respect for their 1st party titles, but I am done buying their systems, and no way in hell am I going to pay for online.
Unless the price comes down like crazy or there is some kind of mass hysteria over it out of nowhere, this thing will struggle to crack 20M lifetime.