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Why is there such a large gap in the data? From credibility, I'd give a 2/3 to 1/3 rating, let's say...



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.