| Mummelmann said: I think people are overestimating GT at this point, the series has been getting a lot of flack from fans for being behind on tech, not fixing audio, using really dated models, removing content, poor multiplayer etc. Metascore has fallen with each installment and sales have gone down ever since GT3, to the point where GT6 is set to sell about 1/4 of GT3, on about 60-65% of the installed base, the series has clearly lost traction. The sales down from GT5 are more than halved as well, this is extremely telling of the waning relevance of the series. Meanwhile, Uncharted has remained in the 90's on metacritic, with UC4 beating UC3 (93 vs 92) and sales of the series has been steadily climbing, to the point where UC4 has officially beat UC3's sales by about 2 million already, on a significantly smaller installed base at that. The Uncharted series has been steadily growing and has also kept its favor with fans and critics alike. In other words; it's very, very unlikely that GT is a bigger system seller than UC, or that it's even close to as relevant today as the UC series. Discounting GT, what else will help increase sales in 2017? Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Uncharted, PSVR, Slim, Pro and price cuts didn't help make 2016 as fantastic as many thought, I was considered partly insane for my "conservative" year end prediction and my refusal to "accept" that the PS4 would sell 20 million or more for the CY. Like I said in another post; there's no secret sauce that will suddenly kickstart PS4 sales and drive them higher, most, if not all, signs point towards either more or less flat or slightly down yoy. If it drops, which it well might, I don't think it'll be a huge drop, perhaps in the 5-7% range or so. There's really no logical reason to think that the PS4 will sell more in 2017 at this point, let's not forget that it has had some really paltry competition and still failed to meet many expectations people have in here. If it hasn't flexed its muscles and showed signs of being a 20 million + a year console, it won't suddenly become that in its 4th year on the market, it appears to have flipped the PS3's curve and gone for a good start with an early but smaller decline, whereas the PS3 started slow and then basically grew for 6 years straight. For some perspective; the PS4's best year so far is only about 15-20% better than the PS3's peak year. |
It's not advisable to predict GTS's performance off of GT6 considering the latter's circumstances. It was pretty damn obvious that GT6 would not sell as well as the previous entries when it was released right when the PS4 launched. Yet, in spite of that, it still managed to sell a respectable amount of units. To me, it is going to come down to multiple factors, namely the quality of GTS and Sony's marketing behind it. The initial trailer was terribad, though it was later revealed that it was utilizing an ancient build. That still does not excuse the trailer because it really gave a lot of people a negative impression. Since then, it has made gradual improvements.
Comparing GT to Uncharted is a flawed assessment unless Sony bundles the PS4 with GTS. Uncharted 4 as a standalone game did sell really well, but we need to acknowledge that the bundle also drove that number to 8.7 million sales. It's not really fair to compare GTS to UC4 if the former is never bundled. And as CGI pointed out, GT3 was bundled with the PS2.
Also, you need to look past just the amount of units sold in a year. While the PS4 sold slightly more in 2016 than in 2015, there's a catch. The PS4 was down YOY in the US as of November 2016 by a significant margin and yet, it managed to outperform its 2015 WW performance. In addition, you need to consider how SIEA pushed the PS4 during the 2015 and 2016 holiday seasons. In 2015, there were the Uncharted Collection 500GB bundle, Black Ops 3 1TB LE bundle, Black Ops 3 500GB standard bundle, and 3 different Star Wars Battlefront bundles. In 2016, there were just the UC4 500GB bundle, the FFXV 1TB LE bundle, the PS4 Pro, and the Infinite Warfare 500GB bundle.
Holiday sales in the US are dependent on three factors: price, AAA 3rd party software, and bundle variety. The PS4 did amazing during the 2015 holiday season because it checked off all three of the aspects I mentioned. In 2016, the PS4 only checked off one which was price. AAA 3rd party software took a major hit. COD IW sold substantially worse than Black Ops 3. Watch Dogs 2 didn't move the needle at all. There weren't Fallout 4 and Star Wars Battlefront last year. Other than the UC4 bundle, all the other SKUs were costly. The Pro's price stayed at $399. The FFXV LE bundle cost a whopping $449. The Infinite Warfare bundle came out after Christmas whereas Sony released the Black Ops 3 bundle in December 14, 2015 when consumers are still in a buying mood. Barring any delays, the AAA 3rd party offerings for the holiday season are shaping up to be better. This will also affect the attractiveness and variety of the bundles.
