Is the game industry headed for a new crash?

[Pyro as Bill]

New IPs

~1m+ sellers (exc Nintendo)

3 years v 2 years. Bigger install base.

2014-2016	2007-2008
29m-71m+ install base	25m-46m install base
Destiny	Assassin's Creed
DriveClub	Ben 10: Protector of Earth
Plants vs. Zombies: Garden Warfare	BioShock
Sunset Overdrive	Crysis
The Crew	DiRT
The Evil Within	Heavenly Sword
Titanfall	Kane & Lynch: Dead Men
Watch Dogs	Lost Odyssey
Mad Max (2015)	Mass Effect
Project CARS	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
The Order: 1886	Skate
Until Dawn	Stranglehold
No Man's Sky	The Orange Box
Overwatch	The Simpsons Game
Bloodborne	Two Worlds
Dying Light	Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
	Warhawk
	Worldwide Soccer Manager 2008
	Army of Two
	BioShock
	Brothers in Arms: Hell's Highway
	Haze
	Infinite Undiscovery
	Kung Fu Panda
	Left 4 Dead
	LittleBigPlanet
	Mass Effect
	Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe
	Pure
	Shaun White Snowboarding
	Spore
	Too Human

Quick-list. Not wholly accurate. Debatable 'new' IPs.

Looks to me like the CoD audience quickly jumped into the new gen and this gen is frontloaded.

Without the 1m+ shovelware cashins that the Wii/DS provided, there's less money in the pot for new IPs.

Install base argument is mute. I don't see how this gen is going to match last gen for successful (1m+) new IPs.