How much does the switch have to sell to be a success?

[zorg1000]

Soundwave said:

zorg1000 said:

Well that's also assuming that there will not be Switch owners who didn't own a 3DS or Wii U.

It might be a difficult task but it is possible that the number of non-3DS/Wii U owning Switch owners can potentially offset the number of people who own a 3DS & Wii U.

It's possible but they will need I think a new franchise hit to break out for that to happen. These types of things don't happen with a new franchise becoming a big player to drive hardware sales (see: Pokemon on Game Boy, Wii Sports on Wii, Halo on XBox, etc.). 

I'm just saying the idea of 3DS + Wii U being an actual tangiable audience is a false premise. There's probably only a handful of actual Wii U only owners, as the people willing to buy the Wii U are likely Nintendo's most ardent fans and as such they almost certainly have a 3DS as well in many cases. 

If Nintendo can sell even 90% of the 3DS marketshare + lets throw in 4-5 million for Wii U owners .... that would be a success IMO. You can't compare last gen to this coming gen without accounting for the dramatic difference in tablet/smartphone adoption and influence amongst kids. 

If Switch can sell the same as the 3DS that would be a victory because Nintendo will likely have to work harder to get that. Like I said it's like walking on an incline versus walking on a flat road. 

Well yeah having a huge hit new IP would certainly make that an easier task but its not 100% needed in order to get new people to buy Switch. There are many potential reasons why somebody may buy a Switch that didnt own a 3DS or Wii U.

But yes you are right that the actual number of 3DS+Wii U sales are not the same as the number of individual people who own a 3DS/Wii U.