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Ok I think I've somewhat answered my question. So I've summed the sales of the top 50 games for 3ds and as far as Japan goes about 75% of those games are Nintendo games. Which is not so bad. Until you realize that out of those 25% 2/3 are Monster hunter games. Which really leaves less than 10% of the sales for 3rd party games. This is a really brutal competition for any 3rd party dev.

 

Edit: Just a disclaimer - I know this analysis is far from extensive and would love if someone does a better one.