| Mummelmann said: I believe it's the successor to the 3DS, nothing else makes sense, that wasn't really the point. I have no illusions that PS2 and DS level sales are the norm or that anything below is bad, I'd consider anything above 50 million sales a success, if I were to choose an arbitrary number. Trust me; I'm perhaps the biggest critic of lofty thinking in here and have been spending the last 3-4 years arguing against those who think the PS4 will sell 150 million units or more, citing several arguments as to why it's near impossible for consoles to do that in the modern market. As for inheriting installed bases; whatever happened to the majority of handheld gamers from the 7th gen? Between them, the Vita and DS had about 230-240 million users, yet about 150 million or more of those seem to have simply disappeared. And the home consoles are in general and combined tally selling considerably slower than the 7th gen contenders as well, so they haven't jumped ship and landed there either. Whose to say this can't happen to a significant portion of the 3DS audience? Fringe consumers will find other pastures to graze, like the vast majority of the Wii's installed base did. You claim I see things in black and white, yet you don't realize that you yourself do that very thing by simply assuming that 3DS owners will jump into a proxy of the 3DS, despite massive and very recent evidence that handheld customers are seemingly more likely to go elsewhere. At this point; the Switch is looking like a tablet, why aren't typical Nintendo like games huge on existing tablets and why would handheld consumers want a hybrid? Why would more tech interested consumers want a 720p tablet or a home system that is considerably weaker than the competition? Why would Wii U fans automatically like the Switch? Who exactly are they aiming the Switch at? These are all relevant questions, and I fear that the Switch as a concept is making the same mistake the Wii U did; trying to appeal to widely different demographics with one single platform. My point with the Wii success and lack of support was a simple one; developers talk, words are cheap, action speaks etc. Let's wait and see what they're actually going to offer and not go crazy over a list of logos and studio names, it means next to nothing. |
Sales of all formats are down from 7th gen because the 7th gen itself was an anomaly because of the premature jump to HD as well as the blue ocean explosion which brought in tonnes of new gamers into the market. Gen 8 is simply the market normalizing as the gen's performance is in line with all other gen, the evidence you're citing isn't consumers looking elsewhere it's simply the market returning to it's usual size.
Why would handheld gamers want a hybrid? Because it gives them one unified library and access to the console offerings with out the need of having to go out and purchase another platform, the library output essentially increases. Your question about Nintendo games not being popular on tablets and such is odd because Pokemon Go highlighted the first party having strong effects on such devices, you ask why tech minded consumers would pick it over the competition because the competition already lack the portability feature who knows what else the platform does. The simple prospect of playing console like games such as Skyrim or even Dark Souls conveniently on the go in itself is a potential huge factor. Why would Wii U fans like the Switch? The same reason they bought any other Nintendo platform it's the only place to get the games they're after, who Switch is aimed at? Anyone who is a potential gamer in both home and portable gaming.
Wii U's mistake wasn't trying to appeal to different demographics far from it, the mistake was the overall handling of the platform, if you watch DYK Gaming's video of it you realize Nintendo weren't sure on what to do with it in the run up to release. This was because Nintendo were handling the platform based on what other entities were saying they should do and not doing their usual approach of doing their own thing, this lead to wayward pricing, consumer confusion and non existent marketing all of which were on top of the struggle of them developing for two separate gaming platforms. You can already see in the Switch the is a vast improvement, all you need for a reference is watch the Wii U reveal and then watch the Switch reveal, the difference is as clear as day in the handling.
Your point about the Wii is undermined because no developer back then even had talk for it, the platform's success took everyone by surprise, it's far more beneficial for developers to be on board early on to test the waters then miss thew gravy train after it has left the platform and try and catch up with it. At least if the platform doesn't take off it's far less costly to just continue on as normal then try and switch approaches to jump on a success you had no plans for.
