Soundwave said:
Trump was such a polarizing figure with the left that he would've pushed those people to Bernie anyway.
Hell, really even Hillary could've won this election. This was a winnable election. She simply did not campaign hard enough in the midwest, 0 stops in Wisconsin, a handful of campaigning dates in Pennslyvania and Michigan.
I believe Bill Clinton mentioned that she wasn't campaigning enough.
Sanders had a lot of enthusiasm on his ticket, even though Clinton had establishment Democrats, Sanders had better numbers with younger people, and that is important because younger people are part of the Obama coalition that are hard to get.
People said this about Obama too "well, Clinton supporters are not going to vote for him" .... except they all did and Obama activated younger voting blocks. Enthusiasm is a difference maker too as I've said, lots of people voted for Hillary but I'm not sure they were jumping out of their pants enthusiastically about it, and the problem with that is usually that means they just vote alone. When you are enthusiastic about a candidate you're more willing to bring 1-3 extra people to vote with you. Campaign enthusiasm can't be understated.
I think Sanders still loses Florida, but I think he wins Michigan, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin, and it's a dead heat in Ohio with him on the ticket and Iowa also is a toss up in that scenario.
Biden wins easily though. Of that I have little doubt, Pennslyvania is off the map pretty much from the get go and he is a very charming speaker as well and would've gotten the full brunt of the Obama coalition.
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A good portion of Trump's voters live outside the urban areas and they generally don't share Bernie Sander's progressive views so I don't see how most of them would be inclined to switch to him ...
And not to be anti-semite but Sander's is also known to be a Jew in a country full of christians so sectarian bias would still be an issue for him even among christian democrats ...
Hillary had a campaigning issue with the non-urban white voters (that much was true when Bill Clinton was trying to steer the sinking ship known as Hillary's campaign) and Bernie is a tough sell to minorities plus he's just not compatible with a whole lot of countryside ...
DarkD said:
That's the thing, those are the guaranteed democrat voters you're talking about. They'll vote democrat no matter who's on the ticket. The problem is the white voters, even moreso, the young white voters. A democrat who can pull in that crowd is like an unstoppable election god.
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Demographics are not destiny and we learn that from the recent election that more minorities favoured Trump over Romney in the past election according to exit polls ...
African americans once used to be a base of republican voters which were popular with Lincoln but now that's not true anymore so democrats shouldn't keep assuming that they can take minorities for granted ...
