| spurgeonryan said: This is the first time I have ever noticed news media saying a president has won a whole week before it has even happened. Amazing Technology we have these days. |
Actually this isn't the first time...
Although not a week before though lol. Basically, here in the United States, you can make a judgement call by looking a polls on the state/county level and then since we have an electoral college system, you can add up the points and see how Trump get to 270. Also early voting has begun so you have actually live data. Based on who many registered voters there are you can look at the avalible paths to victory (as a comobnation of states), combine that with recent polling and extrapolate from previous turnouts. its not a dificult concept. This reminds me of the 2012 election. Just before we had similar data and Obama was projected to be the most likely to win. It panned out exactly as the pollsters predicted because they have imporved their research to the point that they are getting mroe and more confortable with their predictions. Nate Silver is the one who most recently vindicated proper data based polling aggregation as a means of making solid probablicistic predictions.
