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Swordmasterman on 13 October 2016
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Ryng_Tolu said:
CGI-Quality said:

No, you aren't reading it right:

"PS4 will have a 70m userbase advantage over NX or Scorpio by next Fall"

Assuming PS4 will end at 55 million this year, that's would be 19.1 million sold in 2016. I don't see 2017 be bigger than that with Slim / Pro this holidays. Even if we assume it will sell 20 million, that's a total of 75 million by end of 2017, and i holestly think this is very optimist.

That said no, even with 75 million, really can't see NX only sells 5 million next year. 3DS first year shipped 15 million, 1/3 of that is just too low.

The year start in March for Sony. They sold over 35-36 millions last march and expect to sell a total of 55-56 millions  in march of 2017(can be more, can be less.). 14-15 Millions in 3 quarters, when they shipped 7-9 millions  in the quarter of the previous year, isn't too hard.

A lot of PS4  exclusives will launch in the first quarter of the year. They will have both the increase by PSVR and Pro in 2016 and will have a good  first quarter, while the Xbox One will be in the worse season of the year.

 

The Xbox One usually has a weak 1-2 quarter, because Microsoft launch the majority of the games in the holidays. But, that year, people will be waiting for the Scorpio. There is really little to no sense to not launch the Scorpio in the holidays, but 2-3 months prior.