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I suppose it comes down to what market they're really shooting for.

Naturally, if they want mass market, $399 (which seems a little unrealistic for the claimed specs without taking a significant hit on each unit sold on BoM over MSRP) would have to be the price point.

SCE would likely respond by cutting price on the PS4P to $299 after one year on market, potentially keeping the PS4S on the catalog at $199 although I'm curious as to whether a revised PS4S a year from now would still be profitable. Maybe they can sell it near a 1:1 ratio at BoM to MSRP, and maybe they keep it in production just to keep their market more open to a broader market.

I could potentially see the PS3 being removed from the market in this scenario after over ten years on market. But software and PSN Store residual sales should play a large part in whether or not that happens.

More realistically, I would expect to see a $499 MSRP, which still sets it as a "premium" product, despite SCE marketing their $399 consoles as a "Pro" device. I'll withhold my personal comments over that bit of marketing on their part.

If MS is shooting for an "elite" market (the same market occupied by consumers who spent $149 on a Xbox Elite controller), I could potentially see them setting the MSRP at $599, which would make it a smaller niche product, but one that won't be losing them money as I'm unconvinced they can become loss leaders with an Xbox that has a lower MSRP than the BoM. They simply don't have market leverage based upon existing XBO sales and Scorpio is currently being hyped as a part of the XBO environment rather than as an all new hardware platform.

So again, it really boils down to what market MS is shooting for.