Predict How long will NX keep its 9th Gen lead over PS5/XBTwo??

[WC4Life]

Shadow1980 said:

Honestly, I looked as hard as I could. I searched for various key phrases like "iterative consoles," "generation-less consoles," "annualized consoles" and similar search terms, with and without the quotes. I saw no serious discussion about the end of generations as we know them prior to this year. There was some speculation a few years ago that OnLive was going to kill off consoles, and of course Mike Pachter made his claim a few years back that last generation would be the final console generation. But actual discussion about consoles adopting an iGadgets model is so rare as to be nearly impossible to find.

 

The reason it confuses people is because most people have a poor understanding of the history of the console market. The idea that mid-gen spec upgrades for home consoles having been a thing in the past escapes most gamers. When placed in a proper historical context, or even just comparing them to the DSi and New 3DS as examples, it should be abundantly clear that the Pro and Scorpio are simply enhanced versions of existing platforms, and in their specific cases they came about as a response to the one-two punch of ultra high-def TVs and virtual reality. If 4K was still several years away, and if VR wasn't making a comeback as a serious gaming peripheral, then they wouldn't exist.

As for the NX, we also have at least one example of a company releasing two consoles in a single generation, with Atari releasing the 2600 and the 5200. Granted, the second generation produces a lot of confusion on its own, but considering that every notable pre-crash console offered similar gaming experiences and were nominally in direct competition with each other, they can be considered all one generation. Objectively, the NX is probably best categorized as an 8th gen system as it will likely be considered to be in direct competition with the PS4 & XBO for its prime sales years, and if it in turn gets replaced in 2023, that'll be maybe 2-3 years after the PS5 comes out. Will the NX's successor be a 10th-gen system coming out and having its best years when the 9th-gen PS5 is in its prime as well?

History is important. Even in gaming discussions. Whether its putting the console cycle in context or debates about the relative expense of gaming, you gotta put everything in a proper historical context.

I don't doubt your sincerity and can understand how finding these discussions would be extremely difficult. Back in 14/15 these discussions weren't exclusively named "Console upgrades", "Iterative consoles", "Console generations will die", it wasn't like that. The discussion happened under different topics, like NX related topics for example. There were a lot of posts and opinions about console upgrades which were argumented thoroughly but since it was only a vision back then, the majority of people just could not comprehend, it just didn't fit into the general consensus at the time. So these opinions did not catch fire, no, instead they got ridiculed, ignored and forgotten. But then came 2016 and the Neo leaks. This is the important part. When the Neo leaks happened, it was not a vision anymore, it was real and the masses had to accept and confront the truth which exploded the discussion.

Confusion is the key word. Technically the term could be correct but the reality is if a term causes more and more confusion and/or isn't actually representative of the current situation then it should be replaced, redefined or maybe we should start to look at the console market from a completely different view. I think Scorpio is an interesting example when thinking of console generations. Is Scorpio upgraded XB1 or downgraded XB2? When I have to use the generational approach, I'd say Scorpio is both and neither. This makes no sense. But my real answer would be, it's the wrong question. Also while there have been upgrades in the past, this time it's different, the ecosystem works differently now and is a lot more future proof and flexible.

4K is without a doubt the biggest selling point of these new consoles at the moment but I disagree it was the deciding factor why these upgrades came to be. I'll go back to 14/15, back then the one-two punch reason why people said these upgrades would happen was because it was possible and there was demand, it was viable to execute from financial point of view. Simply, there was a void in the market, void that has now been proven, void of people wanting better performance. Because 4K exists, it is easy to use that for marketing and gravitate people towards it by saying, "this is what you are missing", however if 4K did not exist then Sony/Microsoft would have just found another way to promote, like they did with selling PS4/XB1.