I'd be surprised if it releases before Summer 2020. They're not in full production, they don't even have an engine yet. ~4 years is normal for any big open world AAA title, but Kojima might add another year or 2 on top of it.
This is gonna be a PS5 or cross gen title anyway. You'll start seeing the excuses coming around 2019 for the reasons for the delays, "we wanna take advantage of new hardware etc".