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Mnementh said:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Nate Silver has a good track record in predicting american elections on all levels.

 

 

Do note he said Trump had a zero percent change of being the GOP candidate in the start.

 

I think Nate is usually right but this is an atypical election so I think the typical Models are off.