Who is more likely to give Nintendo a run;next gen?Nintendo's demise?

[Bodhesatva]

DOATS1 said:

Bodhesatva said:

"Demise" is a very loaded word. Sony isn't dead even though they experienced a monumental drop in marketshare and have lost billions of dollars. How about we just say "who is more likely to leap frog Nintendo in the console wars?" That's a more reasonable question.

I think Microsoft, simply because of XBL and Microsoft's amazing ability to slowly but steadily take over markets. Historically, they gradually build marketshare, and thus far this generation, they've increased marketshare, absolute sales, and revenue, and profit. I think XBL is the next step in retaining gamers; that is, it makes and Xbox 360 owner much more likely to buy an Xbox 720 than, say, a Wii owner would be to buy a Wii 2, or even a PS3 owner is to buy a PS4.

I could make arguments for Sony and even Apple, though. Predicting that far into the future is incredibly difficult, so I'll just agree that it's entirely possible that the Wii 2 will experience a significant marketshare decline in this ever changing industry.

i disagree with your points mainly because your points rely on the market being completely rational, and react the way it should. but no market does. gaming especially. new contenders enter all the time.

It doesn't sound like we disagree much, if at all, actually. We agree that new contenders enter all the time (that's why I mentioned Apple. Although we should note that as time goes on, the costs to enter the market increase over time, and thus we will see a gradual slowing of new entrants). We agree that the market isn't always reasonable.

My point was that if the market behaves in a predictable fashion, Microsoft is in the better position to leap frog Nintendo. I then go on to point out that I could make arguments for Sony or Apple, too, because the future is so hard to predict.

So, yeah. If the market is predictable (or, as you put it, people behave in a "completely rational" manner), Microsoft is in a good position, but it's so far in the future than something entirely unpredictable could happen.

We agree? I think?