| Bodhesatva said: "Demise" is a very loaded word. Sony isn't dead even though they experienced a monumental drop in marketshare and have lost billions of dollars. How about we just say "who is more likely to leap frog Nintendo in the console wars?" That's a more reasonable question. I think Microsoft, simply because of XBL and Microsoft's amazing ability to slowly but steadily take over markets. Historically, they gradually build marketshare, and thus far this generation, they've increased marketshare, absolute sales, and revenue, and profit. I think XBL is the next step in retaining gamers; that is, it makes and Xbox 360 owner much more likely to buy an Xbox 720 than, say, a Wii owner would be to buy a Wii 2, or even a PS3 owner is to buy a PS4. I could make arguments for Sony and even Apple, though. Predicting that far into the future is incredibly difficult, so I'll just agree that it's entirely possible that the Wii 2 will experience a significant marketshare decline in this ever changing industry. |
i disagree with your points mainly because your points rely on the market being completely rational, and react the way it should. but no market does. gaming especially. new contenders enter all the time. usually every 3-4 genrations. microsoft have been through 2 generations and have not dominated a single one. it couldn't even outsell the ps2, and it had a year to do so, before the real competition arrived, and one region only ever keeps it alive, which is always the americas. you can't dominate a generation with only one region properly behind you, even if it's the strongest region out of all of them., and it's even starting to lose that region too.
xbox live is a really good service, but it's clear that it's not an essential step in gaming right now in my opinion. why? it has been the best online service for 2 generations, but at this current moment in time, according to vgc, the 360 has the least demand out of all three of the consoles, yet it has the highest rated/most games aswell. i can't help but wonder what those games could have done if they were on a nintendo, or sony platform. yes it is second, but with a years head start. align the launches, and it has sold the slowest LTD. the xbox brand can stay alive, but in my opinion, it will never dominate. this is one market that i think microsoft won't be able to touch.
