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Press_the_Button said:
One thing everyone is assuming is that the casuals don't simply get bored and the market shrinks back to the hardcores again.

Casuals are fickle, they get bored easily. They don't really care for any console or brand, they don't read magazines, don't read websites etc. Nothing is stopping them simply getting bored and going back to doing whatever they did for entertainment before they got a PS2, Wii, DS etc.

If all 3 console makers go for casuals next time around, they could all be going for a market that no longer exists or isn't as interested as it once was.

p.s. This is NOT a "Wii is a fad argument", I am saying Gaming itself could be a fad - started with PSOne, grew with PS2 and now with the Wii could have reached it's maxim.

p.p.s hate the casual label, prefer the term "non traditional gamer" instead.

I think you can make the argument that most of the growth the industry has seen in the Playstation and PS2 generations were the result of "Casual" (for their day) gamers entering into the market because new games that appealed to them were suddenly available. Why didn't these new gamers leave the market and go back to what they were doing before the Playstation and PS2 launched?

People are still making far too many assumptions on who these "Casual" gamers are, what their motivations for playing games are, and then using their assumptions to make arguments about why they will destroy/leave gaming ...