My opinion is that we don't know enough about Scorpio but PS4Pro is obviously going take a huge commercial lead.
Counter to some of your points though:
" I still don't see people waiting over an year"... Forget about waiting for Scorpio, so many people will wait a year before getting PS4 Pro. Thats just how it works, only a minority of people rush out to buy something in its initial few months
"Games will not look better than PS4 in a significant way. " We're so far in advance we don't know what the Scorpio's CPU is gonna end up like. It having a big framerate advantage is still a possibility and I would be surprised is MS didn't target this weak spot given how much room they have to plan ahead. MS specifically didn't detail the Scorpio's CPU at the event, I think its up in the air.
