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I'm going to say Microsoft.

They learned alot from last generation with the xbox which they resolved with the 360:
- Need more than just Halo
- Need to NOT be the most expensive console on the market
- Need a visually and ergonomically sound console and controller
- Need to continue dominating online
- Need to establish franchises
- Need to expand to countries outside of America (it hasn't resolved this one.. yet)

Now the 360 has alot of things to fix:
- Not enough Japanese love (that is AAA love)
- Console reliability
- Diversity in games (yes it has a big library, but it's not called the FPS console of choice for no reason)

There's more but I can't think of them right now.

Fact of the matter is, while I don't think Nintendo will lose next generation (they learnt alot from the GCN) I think that in terms of competition, MS > Sony. Where as MS is a company that makes a HEAP of mistakes, they are always fixing or damage controlling. Sony and Nintendo however, they tend to get smacked around for a while before they actually learn and evolve (PSP for the first 5+ years, and N64 + GCN years). While their way of doing things means they will at some point peak at number 1 again, MS is a sustained approach, they may never hit number 1, but they won't get beaten down to last place without a fight (al la gamecube).