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How fast is your internet connection? That also has a baring, if it takes you a month to download a 50gb game, you're not going to want to ever delete it off your HDD.

But I'd say 1TB would be more than enough., 500gb may be too as you're mainly physical. It's very VERY quick to install a game from a disc, the only reason you'd need a big HDD with mainly physical games is updates, I don't think you can uninstall a game without removing updates, so if you have a slow internet connection (or a game with 15gb+ updates) you'll not want to temporarily uninstall games to free up space.