My prediction is that from Q3 until the end of this year the total sales for the Xbox360 worldwide will exceed the PS3.
Here are my reasons for this prediction:
1. The Xbox360 games library to be released this year is both of high quality and it is diverse in genres and scope. The Xbox360 will be stronger in the RPG, Action, Shooter and Strategy genres. It will make a compelling choice for any gamer especially those that like the Action or RPG genres as they have not been catered to well so far. The games being offered encompass a wider market share and some do not have competing offerings in the competitions lineup so far. Standout games like Fable 2 or Too human are perfect examples of this.
2. There have been many rumors floating about with regards to things such as:
A: Wireless support.
B: Increased HDD size.
C: Blu Ray.
A and B are obvious choices for their strategy of online media delivery. Taken together with C it could make the Xbox360 the ultimate media delivery platform, there have been too many rumors of Blu ray to be considered false, now that the Xmote is all but confirmed I feel confident in making this prediction also.
By adding wireless support now, they can move straight to the N standard for its longer range and increased throughput over the older standards. This is important as wireless penetration increases and the need for more bandwidth over wireless for media delivery and online play becomes aparant. I believe that with the Jasper refresh all models will recieve wireless to facilitate the streaming of media and to get more Xbox360s onto Live, and Live marketplace.
3. The Xmote. Since it has practically been confirmed that it is real I think this adds to my case. The Xmote serves as friendly remote for media centre use and as a game peripheral. As a game peripheral, it will be supported. There are too many games where it would be a "No-brainer" to include support for it. Strategy games, Flight Simulation games - Scifi in space or contemporary, practically any PC port you want to throw at it would count also. It makes sense to include it in games like GOW2 and once that happens, support will be universally included in the Unreal Engine.
Since the Wiimote works so well, theres no reason to suspect that motion controls won't work well on the Xbox360. I would go as far as to say that it would work better, because the Xbox360 isn't as limited in scope by the performance of the machine than the Wii. They also have the benifit of hindsight.
The Xmote works on three levels. It makes a straight cross shop between the Wii and the Xbox360 Arcade possible as they would use the same controls. It expands the control options for existing and future games, and makes ports between the Wii and Xbox360 more realistic. Lastly, it provides a point of difference between the Xbox360 and the PS3. An edge when they essentially compete for the exact same market.
4. Heres how I believe they are going to change their pricing and specifications.
Arcade: Add Xmote and wireless, (maybe add a 20gb HDD) keep the price or drop to $250.
This is their Wii competitor, and value option for people who just want to play games and aren't likely to go online. The price depends on how much an Xmote costs them to bundle, and whether or not they decide to add a HDD. They may keep the price higher and use the Xmote as a way of differentiating the Pro and Arcade SKUs.
Pro: Increase HDD size to 60gb, Add wireless and drop the price to $300
This is the bread and butter machine. The specsheet tweaks are needed because this is meant to be a workhorse media centre/gaming platform. It can't do that without access to media, nor a place to store it. The increase to 60gb is also psychological, I used to work it computer retail and the unwashed masses are still more impressed by bigger numbers. A slightly cheaper price and an increase in specifications should push this system to even greater sales numbers. The extra profit from Live activity should more than offset the costs involved to increase the specifications. This needs to be a solid system, it seems a little weak when compared to the PS3 offerings currently. A lower price should help bring more people into the market who could otherwise not or would not buy the machine at $350.
Elite: Add wireless, Blu Ray, keep the price at $450.
This is the Halo machine, not literally. It gives Microsoft a direct competitor for consumers who want Blu Ray and it gives people the impression that the Xbox360 is an equal machine in Pro/Arcade configuration to the PS3. The difference being Blu Ray. The problem of just having a lower price is that it makes the product seem less valuable, one of the lessons Nintendo seems to have learnt also.
5. RROD eliminated. There has been a cloud hanging over the Xbox360 brand ever since the problems started being reported. With the Jasper/Falcon updates I am confident that the machines manufactured now are reliable. When word filters down about this, and console owners are definately media/internet savvy the word will slowly spread and those people who had been put off with nagging doubts can finally put them to rest.
Done.
Tease.
