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Depending on the circumstances it may be a good idea.

If the NX has some kind of gimmick, they'll need some kind of major title to show it off. Zelda obviously wasn't designed to do so, so a Mario game could work well.

I don't think it's necessary for Mario to be a holiday release. Honestly, if the system can't hold its momentum till the holidays on its own, then it's dead anyways.