| Shadow1980 said:
Virginia and N. Carolina going for Obama in 2008 was honestly the biggest surprise to me (Indiana flipping blue was out of left field, too). Since the era of Nixon it seemed that the Southeast (sans Florida) was an increasingly safe haven for Republicans. Virginia hadn't voted Democratic since 1964, and in that same span NC only went Democratic once, with Carter picking it up in in '76. In fact, Carter and Clinton were the only Democrats since the passage of the Civil Rights Act to have performed well in the South, and probably only because they were Southerners themselves (and also perhaps because of Perot in Clinton's case). The shift in voting in those two states from 2004 to 2008 was massive, and for Virginia to remain Democratic and NC to still end up very close showed that, unlike Indiana, 2008 wasn't a fluke for them. I'm assuming Northern liberals have been migrating down the eastern seaboard, hence why Virginia is looking increasingly safe, NC could flip blue again, and Georgia could be in play. If the Southwest and easternmost Southeast continues to move increasingly Democratic due to demographic shifts and the GOP fails to add any new states to its column, the Democrats could essentially have the White House on lockdown with well over 270 guaranteed EC votes. I fully expect the Electoral College to be abolished in the next 30-40 years as it becomes obvious how broken and unrepresentative it is. |
Maps have shifted, looking back to the 70s and 80s seems incredible for a candidate to win nearly eveery state the way Nixon and Raegan managed. The 2000-2012 era has been defined by the more rigid split of red and blue states. We could be witnessing another shift though if a blowout were to occur. For a single political party (in present case the Democrats) to potentially hold the White House for four consecutive terms (2008-2024) either establishes a new normal or possibly a party reinvention by the one out of power. Many people in 1988 thought Republicans would control the White House for a long time, so hard to say much beyond immediate data.
On your last point the question I'd ask is who would abolish it and on what basis? 2000 was the biggest test for the Electoral college when the popular vote did not mirror its winner and it survived. I don't mean to be cynical, but every four years people complain about primiaries and the numerous issues they have and yet Iowa is still somehow first and many states are meaningless that occur on the back end.
