Nymeria on 11 August 2016
| SuaveSocialist said: Bookmarking this thread. You've done a really good job laying out the polling data and electoral map; I'll definitely keep tabs as election day draws near. It's really weird how badly Trump keeps sabotaging his campaign, yet has a score as high as he does. I have never heard of a fringe party doing so well. |
One aspect to monitor is Libertarian and Green Party candidates and their effect on the election. Two months ago Johnson (L) was at 4.5 and Stein (G) was at 2.5, whereas now Johnson (L) is at 9.0 and Stein (G) is at 3.8.
Those numbers may seem small, but especially in tight races 4 points could make the difference in how a state goes. For example Utah (a deep deep red state) could be much closer than past several elections due to Johnson garnering an impressive 16% now cutting into Trumps' lead.
