It's too early to tell who will win. However, polls have been very close since last fall and Trump has recently gained momentum especially in the past week, we'll have to see if that will last or if it's just a bump from the RNC. Clinton's unfavourability is a record high, now matching Trump's.
I think the Democrats have made a number of errors thus far, the biggest of which has been underestimating Trump by assuming he's an idiot. So that he would make such an outrageous statement that would erode his support. However Trump has continued to make outrageous statements and currently he remains competitive, if he's survived this long then chances are he'll survive until November.
There is also this campaign that "we're not Trump". Frankly I think advertising yourself as not being someone else is not a good idea but it could work to some extent if you have somebody who is likable such as Bernie Sanders. But the nominee is not Sanders, but Clinton, who currently is just as disliked as Trump and has enough skeletons in the closet to throw an all year Halloween party for New York City. This could backfire against Clinton if trends continue.
Finally there's all this general talk about Trump, something which the media is also guilty of. He gets all this media attention, just yesterday he was in the headlines while the DNC was going on, and each and every time he uses that opporunity to trash Clinton. Clinton, who is less outgoing, has no chance to fight back here so the only solution is to stop giving your opponent so much attention.
I'm not sure how much of that will have an impact on the election, however I am much less confident in the Democrats now then a few months ago. But that's enough of my midnight political rant, I'm going to bed.
