| Soundwave said: If it can sell 15-20 million in Japan, it will get a ton of Japanese support and all Nintendo support concentrated on one platform plus probably Android apps and lots of indie games. Nintendo is never going to win with the Western "dudebros" crowd, they are set with Sony or Microsoft and that's that, the only way they would get this audience's attention is with an 8 TFLOP machine, which would be the size of a PC and a power brick the size of the Wii U console with a $600 price point. They'd have to go to ridiculous extremes, they are not getting the GTA/Calladooty crowd, too late for that, the GameCube era basically decided that. Once MS decided they had nothing better to do than to waddle into another industry and just basically take up space like a fat soccer mom in an elevator, there wasn't room left for Nintendo to engage that same market. Nintendo maaaaybe had a window of oppurtunity if it was just the PS4 and XB1, but now with Neo/Scorpio clogging up the market, nope. This direction will work better for them at least this is something different and it can dominate the Japanese market and do OK in the West/Europe. |
The 3DS sold 20 mil in Japan and look at its support from 3rd parties. Ok at best at most times in Japan. And many never come west. And those that do don't sell cause Japanese devs of many of these are so unambitious and/or atrocious at selling their products in the west. And don't put so much weight on DQXI, it could 1) be the 3DS version that few care about anymore and 2) one game means precisely dick for long term support.
And extensive 3rd party support increases perceived value, which is very important. When a platform misses out on hundreds of games, the immediate reaction of the general guy is that the system must have something wrong with it and is a bad value. That's very hard to combat, the N64 frankly represents the absolute highest you can get in those curcumstances.
Also, merging their handheld and console development won't give you a library the size of Wii U plus 3DS, the 3DS output is based on significantly lower dev time and costs. With a hybrid that's out the window. So you are looking I would say at a library increase of 35 to 50%. NOT 100%+ increase.
As for the rest of your post, your perception of this market is FAR too rigid. Nintendo has the guns to beat MS, they just need to 1) get their head out of the sand and realize they ARE in competition with PS and Xbox so long as they go for the living room (no matter how many times they say they aren't, the reality shown in EVERY GEN but one is that they must and will comlete), 2) balance their output to make sure their core titles and family-friendly/clasic/whateveryouwanttocallthem titles are well mingled, and most importantly 3) market worth a crap. Mark my words, fhe NX could be an 8 tflop machine at 299 and if their marketing is like the Wii U it would still be a huge sales disappointment. Maybe N64 levels if they were very lucky. The average consumer is NOT INFORMED ON THIS. The PS4 doesn't sell cause of all the power, it sells cause 1) they didn't actively piss off their fanbase like MS and 2) their marketing and focus has been exceptionally well dorected at their fanbase and target demographics and 3) they have and emphasize their exceptiojal 3rd party support. Just look at the PS2 to see more proof: it was the weakest of the three major platforms that gen and noticeably so, yet sold more by a HUGE margin because of those very things I listed.
