CNET generation predictions

[Viper1]

Loud_Hot_White_Box said:

HappySqurriel said:

Loud_Hot_White_Box said:

DOATS1 said:
wow, what data did they use to make those predictions?

Maybe they looked at the PS2, plus anticipated price drops for PS3 making it a much better value at a low price than either of the other consoles, plus the longer-term viability of HD as opposed to SD putting a sort of upper cap on the Wii. Plus research use of networked PS3 clusters for supercomputer purposes. ;)

The Wii could sell more than they indicate if it becomes truly household after Wii Fit. Nintendo will have to increase production by a lot though, and the bulk of sales will have to happen relatively soon (within the years indicated on that chart.)

1) The question isn't whether consumers will see greater value in a $300 PS3 than they would see in a $300 Wii, the real question is whether consumers will see a greater value in the $300 PS3 as compared to a $175 to $200 Wii; this really depends more on how many games with general appeal each console has, and how much value people really see in the non gaming functionality.

2) HD may be an important feature in the long term, but optimistic projections had it at a 50% penetration into American households by 2010 assuming the purchasing rates that were established in 2001 through 2006; the adoption may be slower due to the ecconomic downturn, and even if they're met that still leaves over 50% of the market because not all people who own HDTVs will care about HD gaming.

3) I don't really see any reason why the Wii has a limited timeframe while the PS3 wouldn't ...

 1. True in a way, but consumers won't necessarily buy just one or the other.  And as PS3 drops in price, (even as the huge games roll out), its value to people just explodes.  Regardless of the price of Wii, and even 360.

2.  I expect a large uptick in HDTV adoption given the all-digital-signal TV switch in Feb '09 and much, much lower prices on average than, say, we saw in '01-'05.

3. I kind of assume since it's SD, that somewhat limits it, in part because Nintendo will probably bring out a 720p-capable successor in a few years.  That machine (call it Wii2), also decently low-priced and fully backwards compatible and with a similar control scheme, would cut off Wii sales much more than the expensive PS3 cut off the cheap PS2's sales.  It will limit Wii sales on the back end, but don't get me wrong, that's not any kind of failing for Nintendo; it'll be a great business move.  Wii plus Wii2 sales over any period will be much higher than Wii sales alone.  (assumption here is that the next Nintendo machine comes out well before PS4, and cheaper.  Though PS4 will also be cheaper at launch than PS3 because Cell and Blu-Ray will be mature tech.)

Nintendo has made two claims regarding their Wii successor. 

1. It will support HD.

2. It won't come out for a long time.

 

They have no reason to relase a successor while the current mahcine sells so well.   You have to remember, YOU want HD but not everyone cares if their games are in HD or not so the switch to digital and further proliferation of HDTV's won't really mean much.

Also to note, Japan has the highest concentration fo HDTV's in the world and how's the console battle going over there?