Japan's average age is increasing rapidly, along with a continual flat economy. There aren't the same numbers of kids to replace those that have grown up and are facing a tough time in the real world as time goes on.
Having a place to set up a home console, and the time to play it, is a rapidly dwindling prospect. Getting bite-sized gaming on mobile phones is taking over permanently there, and even those numbers will fade as the future generations get ever smaller in population there.
This is absolutely the last Xbox for Japan, I doubt that we see Scorpio even bother with a JP release. NX and Neo could be the final console releases in Japan as well. A hypothetical PS5 in ~2020 or so might not be worth releasing in their home country unless out of pride. PS4 is a slow burner, and probably won't get the rest of its 6-8M users until more of the banner JRPGs release on that platform and pry people from their old PS3s. Expecting people to then jump again to even Neo, let alone PS5 in Japan is unrealistic at best, and hopeless at worst.
Japan is spiraling because they aren't replacing their population at a rate to keep this kind of thing relevant for very long.
http://mentalfloss.com/uk/people/33868/why-is-japans-population-shrinking-so-fast
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