Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

[freedquaker]

As a full time college professor, I don't have as much as time to play and speculate about the gaming world as much as I used to, but still, almost every single one of my predictions hold at a very reasonable accuracy! I am amazed by the quality and accuracy of my own predictions. Now let's see what I had estimated for the WiiU sales...

Assuming the console cycle would last as long the 7th generation, I had predicted the following...

As of year 2020, my WiiU sales estimate : 24.7 to 49.4 million

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178368&page=1
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1

So by just looking at those numbers, it would be reasonable to expect HALF of those values by the end of 2015, namely 12 to 24 million WiiUs by 2015.

To be more precise though, maybe we should look at my End of 2015 estimates...  http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=197614&page=1

Because I knew WiiU was kind of irrelevant for the 8th gen consoles, I focused on PS4 and XB1 but indirectly, we could still interpolate estimates for WiiU.

The market share for HD consoles (XB1 + PS4) were expected to be between .84 and .88 (84-88%), leaving 12-16% for WiiU. Total Estimated sales were  around 58 million, 12-16% of which were to be WiiUs (7-9 million). But when the head start of WiiU by about 4 million devices is accounted for, it raises the End of 2015 estimate for WiiU to 11 to 13 million.

I never claimed that I knew the future but relying on sound scientific data, and judging without emotions involved, along with good market watch and analysis will usually yield very robust similar, no matter how much people may deny it.