| Shadow1980 said: The Neo is likely to impact PS4 sales in the same way as any other hardware revision (either slimline models or GBC/DSi/N3DS-style spec upgrades). In other words, at best it will be as effective as a good-size price cut. The "PS4 family" will still inevitably enter a terminal decline phase. If the Neo launches at $400 and is cut to $350 next year, I could see 2017 being the peak year for the PS4, with sales maybe being about flat or down slightly in 2018. After that point, I suspect we'll see the PS4 enter the decline phase of its life, and we should see the PS5 announced no later than E3 2021. I really don't expect this generation to be any more protracted than last generation, especially considering PS4 & XBO sales are far outpacing PS3 & 360 sales and thus they will reach market saturation more quickly. Basically, don't expect the Neo to extend the PS4's life cycle by 3+ years, don't expect spec upgrades to existing platforms to be the new normal, and do expect the console cycle to continue as it always has. |
The Neo/Scorpio present an alternative to the ppl who jump ship to PCs or just abandom the generation midway that we never had before, it's very hard to try to project how it will perform comparing it to price-cuts and hardware revisions, we have enevr had something like this, it might worl wonders, it might fail completly, we do not have any basis to go on here. Sony wants this gen to last long since its having extreme profit with software sales and MS couldn't just not answer the NEO so they decided to come up with something more powerfull than everythign else to have a niche in the amrket.
You are completly ignoring market growth here, you are considering that the total amount of ppl who will buy a console this gen is the same amount that bought one last gen when the market probably has grown a lot and we will end with numbers much higher than we did on the PS3/X360 days. You can't predict market saturation using old numbers when reports indicate the market itself is expanding and migth expand even further with the Neo/Scorpio and with VR by atracting gamers that are ussualy PC oriented.
Mid generation upgrades may or may not become the norm it will all depend on how well the Neo and the Scorpio fare.
