CNET generation predictions

[famousringo]

mztazmz said:

Zucas said:
Wow that has to be one of the most improbably scenarios ever. It's as if they finally understand that the Wii is going to sell beastly but their bias won't allow them to put it at first. So they pull some PS3 sales out of their ass to just barely beat the sales. Either one is going to run away with it or not. Two can't have beastly sales like that. Market jsut isn't big enough to support it nor would brandname allow it.

And I suppose if 2 years ago a person was to predict that the Wii would, in one year, outsell Gamecube total sales, they would have been CRAZY!...............right?

and be sure to read my post 2 up from yours:)

 You might have a point... if this were 2006.

 In 2006, everybody was using market data from the previous generation and applying it  to the upcoming generation as if they were the same products. The obvious flaw is that these are completely different products being sold in a somewhat different context. It's heavy speculation based on very little empirical data.

Meanwhile, back here in 2008, we have almost two years of empirical data on how these products have been recieved in the marketplace. So sure, things can change, like you say, but the level of uncertainty is much lower two years into a generation than it is before the generation has even begun. And predictions which assume that every uncertain factor will somehow align favourably with only one of the market competitors aren't worth very much, are they?