Intrinsic said:
I don't get where or how some people are arriving at these theories when everything in the industry points to it not being the case. The games will always be made for the hardware that commands the largest install base. So the current 60M install base between the PS4/XB1 will be more important than the 6-10M Neo/Scorpio by the end of next year. The cheaper consoles will also always sell more than the more expensive consoles till the more expensive ones come down in price. Devs will make their game for the PS4/XB1 as they always have, Then when they habe finsihed, go into a Neo/Scorpio preset and change the output to 4K or increase the levels of Certian effects if the rez is remaiming at 1080p. Its really not gojng to be anything more extensive than this, the relative install bases just wont allow it. And it wont be every 2-3yrs, more like 3-4yrs. And the most shocking thing to me in all this; if you have a PS4, you miss out or nothing but 4k or a little more eye candy is you decide not to buy the Neo. If 1080p is ok with you, thrn the Neo is of absoluteky no value to you. YOU DONT HAVE TO UPGRADE cause you are missing out on nothing. Its not even really an "upgrade". But yh, lets all freak out, act like the world is ending, cats sleeping with dogs..... and all that, cause what is about to happen isnt somwthing thats been in the PC space for.... well, forever. |
So for devs it's a rather pointless extra effort for that minor install base that can run the game anyway. (no access to new customers)
For users it's a rather pointless upgrade, bad value for money
For progress it's introducing a mill stone going forwards, unless next gen still happens, making the upgrade even less value for money.
I fully agree that what you wrote is probably gonna happen. Not a Neo spec 2 though, more likely to be a one time thing per generation. I remain under the impression this is all a byproduct from planar die shrinks having reached the end of the line and the switch to finfet architecture. I could be wrong though, I'm very curious to know what's inside the XBox One S. It's still bigger than a ps4, 28nm planar with some tweaks is my guess. $299 with same starter HDD isn't exactly much cheaper.
Basically not much will change. Instead of going down to 249 price point, prices will remain higher for longer. The sales curve will slow down and we're in for another long generation. Which is good news for psvr, gets a chance to develop before next gen arrives with 4K glasses. That's what I expect from Sony anyway. MS might have other plans, iterative Win 10 box.
Anyway it's going to be boring if all we have to speculate about is hardware upgrades. A new generation always stirs the imagination with new possibilities and new ips appearing. No way I'll ever get hyped enough to buy a hardware upgrade day one. I lost interest in PC upgrades over 6 years ago and now only play on my laptop occasionally. Same might happen with iterative consoles.
