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Sorry TheSource, but it's hard to look at history here, and predict the future. Well, Video Gaming history anyway. You could probability look at some other industry's progression and find parallels.

What the industry is today, and what the consumer is, is so radically different, the rules have changed.

Personally, the only thing I can see disrupting Ninetndo, is Nintendo. It all depends on what the next console ends up being. It could be a huge success, or a small one (even Nintendo's failures have been small successes).