Clinton has clinched nomination-Also, Clinton or Trump?

[DivinePaladin]

Johnw1104 said:

DivinePaladin said:
She hasn't definitively clinched anything yet, let's be fair here. The supers most likely won't flip unless the FBI recommends indictment, obviously, but that's there's a clear distinction between Supers and pledged delegates. And as Clinton should know from 2008, the Supers aren't loyal until they're 100% forced to lock in.

We've still got a month to go before we are completely positive of the match-up we're getting, and for the first time in years, literally anything could happen between now and July with this crazy cycle. I'm fairly certain CNN is only reporting on this to try and hush down California's primary on Tuesday and wash Sanders away quietly.

If it weren't for the FBI thing this one would be over; that's the only thing that's potentially stopping her at this point. Even still, she's projected to win California, and it really looks like she'll have wrapped it up one way or the other shortly.

If anything, this race has showed that the super delegates positively refuse to back Sanders. If Clinton had a more conventional opponent she'd probably be screwed, but with him being so far from center I imagine she's golden unless some seriously damning information regarding the emails come to light.

I can only imagine how bad the trouncing would've been had a better candidate like Warren run. Sanders was literally a nobody when he announced, he's given only stump speeches for a year now, and he'll have probably 40-45% of the vote when all is said and done, AFTER being ignored by the media at almost every turn until the State Department's report a few weeks back. This should never have been close but Hillary is such an objectively poor candidate that she needed every leg up to win this against a nobody. 

 

I also don't put much stock in the polls for CA considering the huge selection bias in most of them, considering CA's registration surge this cycle. I don't think Sanders will kill it obviously, but I think it'll be a small win unless millennials by and large decide not to vote because of today's conveniently timed announcement. It won't hurt Hillary that much because a large portion of her voters mail in.

 

Either way, without an indictment, corporate interests run the next 4 years guaranteed at this point - which isn't a change from the norm, I know, but I would've taken a single-issue, possibly lame duck candidate for four years just to push for actual Washington change over two candidates I'm morally and politically opposed to. At the very least this primary has opened many eyes to how corrupt the DNC is, so it'll be good for something even if I fear for the next eight years for my civil liberties.