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Intrinsic on 26 May 2016
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Soundwave said:
shikamaru317 said:

Yeah, Polaris 10 is expected to release for less than $300 this summer. By early-mid 2017 when Xbox One II will enter production, Polaris 10 will likely have dropped to $250 or less at retail, and MS buying in bulk could likely get them for around $200. $200 or so for Polaris 10, maybe $80 for a low-mid range Zen CPU, $50 or so for some DDR4 or GDDR5, $50 for a 2 TB hard drive, $20 for a Blu-Ray drive, plus the cost of the case and the controller, that would come out to around $450 give or take. PS4K will probably be $400, so it would make sense for Xbox One II to cost $50 more since it's more powerful.

Probably less than that even, $250 at retail means likely a $50 profit at least for the GPU manufacturer, $30-$40 for the retailer. 

If it's $250 by mid next year, you're probably talking a per part cost of about $150 for MS or even lower. 

The 7870 GPU which is basically whats in a PS4/XB1 was $350 at launch in 2012 and that's basically what ended up in the PS4/X1. This would match up almost exactly. 

Polaris 10 is a no brainer for Microsoft, $399.99 launch MSRP with 6 TFLOP performance should be no big issue. 

It doesnt work that way tho. Shikamarus assessment is closer to what it will be. But even at that it will cost more. 

But even if we use his and your assessment, there is one thing you guys are not considering.

The first AMD 28nm chips were available in 2011. Two years before they were seen in consoles. And over 4 years after the tech was developed. It's not like Sony or MS can just go pick these chips off a shelf you know? It takes a while to improve yields of any kinda chip especially if you intend on ordering 10s of millions of them to go into a console. 

People that buy GPUs basically pay a premium due to how poor yields are while the GPU manufacturers try and get the latest and greatest tech to market. 

This can be alleviated a little tho, since MS and Sony will probably still make the base PS4/XB1 along side the revisions. That allows them not have to make too many of the new consoles while waiting out how long it may take for yields to improve. But even that has its own drawbacks.