What happens when Putin is gone?

[Scisca]

derpysquirtle64 said:

Scisca said:

I think you don't get it, that it's common knowledge that NATO has absolutely no way to defend the Baltic Countries in case of an attack. If Russia attacked you, all NATO could do is impose sanctions. After all, do you even know the wording of art. 5 of the NATO Treaty? It's not as strickt as many believe and by no means does it tell other NATO members to join the war. If you were attacked by Russia, no European country (except for Poland) would give a shit. All they would care about would be securing a steady flow of oil, gas and other resources from the East and to secure their business' in the conquered areas. USA? That would be a bit tougher, they would have to calculate many variables. Is it worth it to start a war with Russia over some tiny countries that were part of Russia less than 25 year ago? What impact would it have for USA in the Pacific? In Korea and Japan? In the Middle East? How much would it cost? Hell, how to even get American troops there!? The Baltic Sea is under Russian control, so what should they do - land in Germany and drive half a continent? Can you imagine that? Helping you would depend solely on the result of a calculation of costs for America - and in my opinion, you'd be sacrificed just like Crimea and Donbas. Hopefully, at least Poland could secure a bit of Lithuania - the part that's historically Polish. Wouldn't want it falling to Russian hands.

Don't forget that Ukraine had American and British guarantees as well. I know these documents had different headlines, but the fact stands. You are at the mercy of Russia, you are the next target on their list and your allies have no means of helping you. I honestly have no idea how you can be this arrogantly confident. Russia does what it wants to do. It has always been this way.

Our legendary President Lech Kaczyński said years ago: "First it's Georgia, after that will come Ukraine, after Ukraine - the Baltics, and after the Baltics, possibly, Poland". And what happened? Russia subdued Georgia. Then it invaded Ukraine. Now everybody is eyeing the Baltics...

The Baltics invasion is almost 100% not gonna happen if NATO will stop its expansion to the East. Otherwise, maybe

Yeah. That "maybe" is exactly what I'm talking about. Everything is still on the table. Poland is trying hard to take the invasion on Poland off of it, but the Baltics... I don't envy them

I mean, at this point nobody knows what the borders in Central and Eastern Europe will look like in 20 years. What's Ukraine going to end up like? What happens to Belarus once Lukashenka dies? The Baltics? Russia can just as well fall apart again once Putin dies or they may start a war because of that. Who knows if it's not going to be only Poland and Russia again, like it always used to be? It's anyone's guess, but as usual - the strong will survive.