spemanig said:
1. Yes. 2. And cross play between the NX and NXDS. Yes-ish. 3. Yes. Dual screens for both. 4. That's not all, but essentially yes. 5. Yes. 6. Um, that depends on factors outside of the hardware, but for the sake of argument, yes. 7. Within the first year, I think it will outsell them weekly, yes. 8. Lifetime, definitely. No you're missing something. 9. NX will be backwards compatible with the eShop of the Wii U and 3DS. That's important for the marketplace. And there's probably more I'm forgetting because I've never laid it out like this. But I'm sure your upcoming post will jog my memory. Go on. |
Aaah okay. Anyways!
I don't 100% agree with all of your predictions, but I want to assume that all of your predictions for what the NX is come true.
I just don't see the console you've outlined having the success you're predicting. Don't get me wrong, I think that console would easily be more succesful than the Wii U. Simply being able to tell a father than he can buy a system that has Mario for his kids, and Madden for him will be enough to do that...but I think there are some things that would limit it.
1. I don't think the handheld market in total ever sells more than 100 million units again. This gen has seen handhelds decline by two thirds. That's a giant drop and though I don't think it will be nearly that drastic next gen, I think a drop of 25% is guarenteed. Phones have just eaten handhelds and they are getting better way too fast for handhelds to make a comeback.
2. Without a strong handheld market, the home console is left without a pretty major selling point for a lot of people. If they don't want handhelds, why do they care about a unified library or cross buy?
3. If it isn't more powerful than the PS4 it's going to get some seriously bad word of mouth. It may not even be justified, but gamers are going to say that it's too little too late. and though hardcore gamers don't buy the most consoles, they certainly guide the conversations that push the general market. Otherwise, the PS4 may not have been the go to console this gen.
4. UI has never been a major selling point for a gaming console. The NX will still do all the same basic things as the others, just with a UI designed to be more like a phone or tablet. Which will be nice, but it won't be enough to push sales to any serious degree.
5. I think 2019 sees the release of at least the next Playstation, maybe even the next Xbox. When that happens the NX is going to be in the same place the PS3 and 360 were in during 2013 and onward. Legacy platforms with dwindling support and appeal.
6. All consoles do sales, and having multiple places that gamers can buy games from means competition. PSN isn't having a sale on a game you want? Try Amazon, or Best Buy, or Gamestop. I think Nintendo will have a hard time getting around that. Since even if they have sales on big games more often than PSN or Xbox Live, they won't be able to have sales more often than them, plus all the major retailers.
7. Peoples friends have PS4s already. People want to play games with their friends, and that's going to lead people to keep buying the leading console. At least to some degree.
Like I said though, I think the console you outlined would be successful. But no mega hit.
Bet with Adamblaziken:
I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.
