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Pachter predicts “Uncharted 4” will sell well, but the install base will limit sales: “It likely will sell between seven to 10 million units. It's hard to attach at a rate higher than 25% of the 40 million PS4’s out there.”

Pachter isnt always right.... lets be honest.
But him saying it ll sell 7m-10m is probably all but garenteed.

I personally think its going over 10m lifetime.