Good post, but I think it falls into the trap of the binary world. You know, the "either things will go this way or they will go that way" part.
Third parties aren't actually a single cohesive group. There will likely be developers who stick with HD (Epic), and others who embrace the Wii heavily (Atlus and Majesco), and most will probably play both sides against the middle (EA and Capcom).
The result will be a big upheaval. Those who bet too heavily on HD will risk being bought up by those who are making big profits on Wii. Small, agile players who support the Wii will grow into substantial forces in the videogame market, while lumbering giants grind to a halt (Hi, Take Two!). The Wii really is a kind of revolution, and like all dramatic conflicts, the hierarchy will not look the same when the dust settles.
I find this situation far preferable to a world where the third parties all stick with the HD consoles. That path of skyrocketing costs would only lead to fewer games trapped into delivering reliable archetypes. The number of development studios dwindle as third parties rapidly consolidate in a desperate attempt to keep costs down and as the limited talent pool is divided into fewer projects.
"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event." — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.
