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JWeinCom on 30 April 2016
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JRPGfan said:
JWeinCom said:

You're assuming that the NX will fail, which based on what we know, is not a safe assumption.  I really doubt Nintendo is going to release a console that is essentially the same as a PS4.  The comments of executives point to some sort of gimmick which may or may not catch fire.  

We don't exactly have 3 new consoles coming out.  As far as we know so far, we're getting two revisions and one new console.  That's a bit different.  Surely, these were made with the intention of extending the generation, but that doesn't mean it will work.  In particular, if Microsoft keeps falling behind the PS4, then they'll be inclined to begin the next generation earlier, assuming they don't want to drop out of the market outright.

We really don't know that much about XBox 12 or Neo.  Obviously there won't be huge changes in hardware, but there might be some interesting new software feature.  XBox One also has their Hololens thing so we'll see if that helps them gain so momentum.

Like I said, I don't think 1 million is particularly unlikely, but untill we have some more solid details about other things going on, it's way too early to call it a sure thing.

Even if the PS4 goes on to sell 140m, I doubt MS would have any issues if say the Xbox One ended up around say 60m.

"Inclined to being the next generation early."

Why? If you ignore the Wii, how many Nintendo consoles have ever sold more than 60m units?

"assumeing they dont want to drop out of the market outright"

wow... You know theres more to a bussiness than just being #1.

As long as MS is able to make money doing it Im sure theyre fine with just reaching say 60m units sold.

I dont think you should get your hopes up for a new console before 7nm technology is ready and affordable.

That probably wont happend before 2019.

Dunno why you're making 60 million a magic number.

I never said that being #1 was all there was to it, so back off with the snark.  What matters is how much they're making off the XBox division, and how much they could make by investing that money in other business ventures.  Microsoft has been moving to more of a focus to games on windows, and the guys who were passionate about the division aren't heading the company anymore.  Since Microsoft lumps the XBox One with the 360, the surface and a few other things, it's hard to tell how much they're making or losing.  They cited the division as an issue in 2015, and hardware sales haven't seen a huge rise since then.  Revenue has decreased since last year what with price cuts and all.  Microsoft's been pretty low key regarding XBox's results which seems to indicate they're nothing to write home about.

And no, Microsoft isn't going to be ok with it as long as they're making money.  Even if they're making 50 or 100 million a year, that might not be enough to keep the division worthwhile.  Because they may be able to make 2 or 300 million by investing that money somewhere else within the company.  

If I judged based on the consoles that came before the Wii, then why would I expect the Wii to sell 100 million?  Why would I have expected the PS3 to sell under 100 million?  Why would I expect the 3DS to sell only 60 million over 5 years?  

Past results can be useful, but using them as the sole determinent of whether a console will be successful is ridiculous.  That's basically the Pachter method of prediction.  Without knowing what the NX will be, guessing that it will be a failure, or sell less than 60 million is just a random guess.

There are too many variables to determine anything is a sure thing at the moment.  And that's all I have to say about that.