NX very likely to flop....here is why: (my opinion)

[sonicfan1373]

I believe that trust and brand image are probably going to be the largest issue, even assuming that Nintendo gets the specs right, manages to release the hardware without major technical problems, and has a strong launch lineup. Like the OP mentioned there are probably people out there that are unsatisfied with the Wii U and may not want to take another risk with this new system. Also another issue that was mentioned was that NX is essentially starting with zero and as was stated many gamers already have friends in other ecosystems and that may prove to be a problem for the NX.

With that being said though I do not believe the March release will have a negative impact. Nintendo has released many of their highest selling hardware products in March or other non-holiday months. There are several reasons why they would do that. For one thing they are not intending to get smashing sales in March but rather they probably want test their marketing strategy and make adjustments before the holiday months of 2017, when they expect the most sales. Looking at the 3DS launch, Nintendo cut the price of the system (which was one of the most problematic issues with the system's marketing at launch) and that helped the system take off during the holidays of 2011. Looking at a situation like Wii U when Nintendo launched in November 2012, Nintendo had to wait until the start of the next holiday season to cut the price (could have done it sooner but all momentum would have been lost again by the time the holidays started), at the same time they had to deal with the results of the previous failed holiday season including tremendous negative press. By launching in March Nintendo can do targeted releases, do research in order to come up with enticing bundles, and make necessary adjustments to the marketing.

As for them not showing the system at E3. I really do not know what to make of that. One reason why I can see them do that is because announcements do tend to get lost at E3 with so much going. Moreover, a lot of companies seem to be ditching E3 this year. Nevertheless, I do believe that Nintendo needs to show the NX and take the curtains off of the specs, features, key launch titles, and price fairly soon especially since the system will launching in March. Moreover, they need to quell all of these rumors, some of which may be building unrealistic expectations that may lead to disappointment. People need to know what to expect and Nintendo needs to read their reactions and make the necessary adjustments.

I am not going to say the system will flop or be a success. We do not even know what they system is at this point. However, I do agree that it will be an uphill battle for them. As a Wii U owner I personally never felt burned by the system, largely because I got the first-party support that I wanted and plus I do not really have a lot of time to dedicate to home console gaming. However, I can see that being a different story for a lot of other people (including people who never actually owned the system but watched how the system's life unfolded) so Nintendo really needs to convince these people. At this point, assuming that this system is a stationary home console (which Nintendo seemed disconfirm in a recent statement) and does not have a golden feature that instantly captures casuals or gamers (and lets be honest those are rare), I believe that the NX will be fighting to be the second choice for PS4, Xbox One, and PC gamers. However, if the system ends up being a hybrid or a portable then it has more of a breathing room. Either way the price, launch titles, the capability and durability, and public perception will play huge roles, which is why it is difficult to say how a system that we know nothing about will do.