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Some has drawn parallels with smartphones. iPhones is coming up to its first game-console-like generation age. It is nine years since the first iPhone and six years since the iPhone 4. It now starts to get trouble updating the old phones and will probably become more difficult in the future.

"Apple pulls ios 9-3 update for older devices following activation problems"
http://arstechnica.com/apple/2016/03/apple-pulls-ios-9-3-update-for-older-devices-following-activation-problems/

EDIT: ios 9.3 only goes back to 4S, that is five years of backwards compatibility.