Yes, I have factored those things in. Individual games do not move large amounts of hardware, no release of a game this gen has had a sustained elevating effect for a system. Halo 3 was the closest thing to one and it only lasted a few weeks. Blu-ray has already won the format war, there was a spike when it was announced that HD-dvd was dead and then it went down though slightly higher, but it's not making it grow by any significant portion since then. Blu-ray adoption is going to be far slower than DVD adoption. The biggest sustaining increases come from price cuts, and Sony pretty much crushed any hope of that happening this year.
When MGS4 releases PS3 numbers may go up by 10-20% for a week or two and return to normal. When LBP releases it probably isnt' going to increase it at all, it's not a system seller. Resistance 2 is going to sell to Resistance 1 fans, not move hardware. Very few games move hardware, and when they do it's for a couple of weeks.
What we see now is how it will be for a good while.
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