PS4 LTD Sales should be at least 140 Millions

[Nate4Drake]

Imnus said:

So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be around 10M (it was between 9.5M and 10.5M).

Imnus said:

So, consoles usually sell around 50% of their annual total on the holidays. So I did some very simple math to see what can we expect:

PS4
4M by Dec 31, 2013
12M by Sep 31, 2014

8M Jan -> Sep 2014
8M Sep -> Dec 2014
16M - 2014 (Total)

20M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


XONE
3M by Dec 31, 2013
6M by Sep 31, 2014

3M Jan -> Sep 2014
3M Sep -> Dec 2014
6M - 2014 (Total)

9M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


Now my actual predictions are around 18M for the PS4 and 10M for the XONE by 31 Dec 2014. Why? Because XONE sales rely more heavily on the NA market where holiday sales grow the most.

 

Right now I think it's possible to make a pretty accurate estimate of the PS4 LTD Sales with some pretty basic math, I looked at trends from past consoles and I arrived at this:

PS4	Launch	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
YTD	4M	14M	17M	21M	20M	17M	15M	12M	8M	7M	5M
LTD	4M	18M	35M	56M	76M	93M	108M	120M	128M	135M	140M

10 Years LTD Sales
140M

6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M

5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M

 

This was done with considerably less momentum and longevity than the PS2, but still like a PlayStation console considering its grow in Europe, Asia (outside Japan), the Middle East and South America. If somehow Japan picks steam and/or China becomes a factor it could achieve 150M, in fact it could still achieve that, considering this is a conservative estimate.

In conclusion unless a very disruptive tech comes to the market similar like Smartphones were to Handhelds, I don't see how could the PS4 sell less than 140M, and even then it's pretty much impossible for something to be that disruptive so fast, Smartphones are probably the most disruptive piece of tech in human history (1:1 with population) and even then it took 3-4 years for Smartphones to destroy dedicated Handheld gaming. In that scenario I still see the PS4 over  100M or 120M depending when such tech arrives to the market.

 

 

For the XONE I won't be making detailed predictions because MS is behaving erratically so I don't know what could happen with the console, for example such aggressive price-cuts could move forward a ton of sales and help them gain back the mindshare in the US/UK but on the other hand it could kill public perception mid-longterm; also are they completely giving up outside US/UK; how many 1st Party developers could they form on time to help this gen; how many, how big and how difficult is for them to obtain 3rd Party exclusives, etc.

Anyways, I think the XONE should be around 50M-70M LTD.

OMG perfectly in line with my prediction :)      My forecast is 56M by the end of 2016 !