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OP; one would really need to peak into a crystal ball to see this one. What's obvious is that PS4 has yet to peak there, without competition 2018 would likely be the systems peak year in Japan, problem is how will NX will affect its market share and stunt it's growth

Without competition it's definitely likely at the discrepancy of square Enix and other key publishers . If we get FFXV, Dragon Quest 11, Kingdom Hearts 3 and a major portion of FFVII (part 1/3) by holiday 2017 alongside a ps4 price cut and the usual flow of quality third party titles with even more Japanese PS4 exclusive thrown in the mix. Then it's a given, the system certainly won't die before 2020! But will these games end up on NX?