Dragon007 said:
HappySqurriel said:
Dragon007, I think that if you posted how you thought the Nintendo DS would sell over the next 4 years people would understand your prediction better; in particular if you give reasons why the DS performed as you predict. Here is mine: 2008: ~30 Million systems sold, total sold ~100 Million
2009: ~25 Million systems sold, total sold ~125 Million
2010: ~20 Million systems sold, total sold ~145 Million
2011: ~10 Million systems sold, total sold ~155 Million
2012: ~5 Million systems sold, total sold ~160 Million
2013: ~5 Million systems sold, total sold ~160 Million In my opinion, after the Nintendo DS hits 100 Million units sold it will become much more difficult to expand its market at the same rate it has been; the reason for this is that many of the people it will have to sell a system to will have never owned a handheld system before. At the end of 2010 Nintendo will release a new handheld system which will effectively put the Nintendo DS on its final legs and sales will be reduced to replacement systems, and as an inexpensive system to buy for your 6 year old child. |
I find your schedule for the DS to be extremely flawed. First of all, there's no way it will hit 100 million so quickly. It's currently on 72 million, it has another 28 million to go. If it's going to hit 100 mill it will mid-late 09. Also, 5 mill in 2013? I'm sorry but there's no way. The original Gameboy and the GBA had great legs (but they still didn't reach PS2 sales mind you) but they had virtually no competition. The DS will be pretty much non-existant by 2013. |
Markets expand with time genious. The worlds population has nearly trippled in the past decade. Remember how popular the NES was growing up (I assume you're old enough to remember such a thing), well, compare the NES LTD to even the "loser" of last generation (the Gamecube). The DS has the distinct advantage of being hot in a larger pool of consumers compared to the PS2. Not only that, it appeals to a much larger audience and is the type of product that can be sold to the same home several times (both my nephews have one and actually managed to destroy their first two - they're both under 10 years old, go figure. Their mother also has one). On top of that, I wouldn't consider the PSP much competition to the DS, because despite having a competitor they're still selling better than any console before it. If you look at Japan as a case study the PSP didn't even really take off until the DS began to saturate the market and yet it still moves a lot of units. Not to mention,you assert the DS can't possibly do this because they have a lone competitor, so are you trying to say the PS2 was without competition? I'd say it had a whole lot more competition than the DS ever had. Judging by actual data and the past history of both the market and Nintendo you fail to produce any sound logic or reason to support your predictions. I assume this won't matter though, because apparently you're blinded by fanboyism.
