From this weeks WW chart:
I, too, think Wii Fit has a good chance of beating PS3 by Christmas 09.
Conservatively:
Wii Fit:
150k/week for 90 weeks = 13.5 million more copies
13.5 million more copies + 3.25 already sold + 2.25 million for the first month in the Us = 19 Million (Not including holiday bump)
PS3:
180k/week *90 weeks = 16.2 million
Thats 28 million....
Now for a more aggressive Wii Fit Projection:
300k/week = 27 million
30 million copies of Wii Fit.
I don't think it will hit 30 million in 90 weeks, but I do think that Wii Fit will be somewhere between 20 million and 25 million, which would be giving PS3 a run for its money.
Ultimately I don't think it will catch up to the PS3, but it will get close.
Normally I wouldn't think any non pack in would reach 25 million, but i think by Christmas 09 there will be an official bundle; also, there is going to be some major casual support from EA which can't hurt.....
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.....Just to clear it up, I said that WiiFit probably isn't going to pass the PS3 and my prediction of 25 million is dependent on a bundle. My real estimate was the first one, 19 million. (Which also is a bit high, but I am sticking with it)
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I want to add: while I don't expect it to, it wouldn't surprise me.
I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.