800k, here's why:
-The game looks like trash. Everyone says the graphics improved, but the game still looks awful for a 2016 game. Did they show improvement? a bit. Does that mean the game looks great now? Absolutely not. The game simply went from unbearable gamecube level to barely passable. Why would anyone want to buy an awful looking rail shooter when they can get games like smash bros, splatoon, pikmin, or DKTF (all of which look way better than starfox).
-The game's audience is limited. It's not a multiplayer game so it won't have the same appeal as smash bros/mario kart/splatoon. Most kids today don't even know about starfox beyond smash bros, so don't expect them to make a significant impact. Most of the fans who "waited for 18 years" have most likely moved on. Most casuals probably don't want to play a single player rail shooter about animals in space. So who does this game appeal to? The diehard Nintendo fans that desperately want the old starfox to make a significant comeback.
-The wii u successor will be out in the next few months/next year, thus killing starfox zero's legs.
The only reason why this game won't be a dramatic flop is because Nintendo is bound to do a reasonable amount of marketing giving this game a reasonable launch
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